πŸ“ˆ News Predictor β€” CPI Β· PPI Β· FOMC Β· NFP

Prediksi rilis ekonomi US dari pasar prediksi (Kalshi) + model Β· build: 2026-10-05 08:06 WIB
CLAIMS Oct 2026 β€” rilis Thu, 08 Oct 2026 Β· 19:30 WIBCPI Sep 2026 β€” rilis Wed, 14 Oct 2026 Β· 19:30 WIBPPI Sep 2026 β€” rilis Thu, 15 Oct 2026 Β· 19:30 WIBRETAIL Oct 2026 β€” rilis Thu, 15 Oct 2026 Β· 20:30 WIBFOMC Oct 2026 β€” rilis Thu, 29 Oct 2026 Β· 01:00 WIBPCE Oct 2026 β€” rilis Thu, 29 Oct 2026 Β· 19:30 WIBGDP Oct 2026 β€” rilis Thu, 29 Oct 2026 Β· 19:30 WIBNFP β€” rilis

1 Β· Prediksi saat ini (1 call per news)

CLAIMS Β· Oct 2026

rilis Thu, 08 Oct 2026 Β· 19:30 WIB
πŸ’΅ USD: GOOD tipis β€” kalau klaim TURUN, dolar naik 54% (median +0.023%, n=417)
At least 175,000 @97Β’
Call level: hist 708/709 = 99.9% Β· kondisional 29/30 = 96.7% Β· βœ… β‰₯95%
πŸ’° buku rung: bid 97Β’/ask β€” Β· rung vol 200
Ekspektasi: konsensus TV (195)
πŸ“ band 50% ladder: 193 – 208 Β· rung tiap 5 Β· buku OK (vol 447 di rung 2 terdekat)
Cetakan lalu: 197
Aturan: level ladder (rung terdalam aman)
⏱️ Matang H-12 jam (rilis mingguan) β€” angka level sangat stabil antar-minggu.

CPI Β· Sep 2026

rilis Wed, 14 Oct 2026 Β· 19:30 WIB
πŸ’΅ USD: BAD tipis β€” kalau arah NAIK, dolar naik 42% (median -0.051%, n=36)
> -0.4% @99Β’
πŸ”€ Arah vs cetakan lalu: NAIK Β· peluang 90% (pasar +0.52% MoM vs cetakan lalu +0.40% = cetakan Ags)
Median implied (Kalshi strip) (data per 2026-10-05): MoM +0.52% Β· Core +0.17% Β· YoY +3.58%
1 call: quote paling yakin di seri MoM. Hist 61/63 = 96.8% (59/59 sejak Nov 2021).
⏱️ Matang: mulai H-3 (72 jam) β€” audit 18/18 menang sejak H-3; label strike final bisa geser s/d jam terakhir.

PPI Β· Sep 2026

rilis Thu, 15 Oct 2026 Β· 19:30 WIB
πŸ’΅ USD: GOOD tipis β€” kalau arah NAIK, dolar naik 55% (median +0.021%, n=77)
⏳ menunggu (model dihitung setelah CPI keluar)
πŸ”€ Arah vs cetakan lalu: NAIK Β· peluang 80% (pasar +0.66% MoM vs cetakan lalu +0.40% = cetakan Ags)
Model dihitung setelah CPI keluar; ambang = prediksi βˆ’ kuantil 0.99 error walk-forward.
⏱️ Matang: H-1 β€” call keluar setelah CPI actual (CPI rilis sehari sebelum PPI).

RETAIL Β· Oct 2026

rilis Thu, 15 Oct 2026 Β· 20:30 WIB
πŸ’΅ USD: BAD tipis β€” kalau arah TURUN, dolar naik 43% (median -0.049%, n=94)
Arah TURUN Β· hist 98.1%
Call arah: **TURUN** β€” hit 104/106 = 98.1% Β· OOS 42/43 = 97.7% Β· filter >1 notch (0.2%) Β· βœ… β‰₯95%
Median implied ladder Β±0.543 Β· dipakai sbg ekspektasi
Rung terdekat: Above 0.6% 45Β’ Β· Above 0.4% 62Β’ Β· Above 0.8% 29Β’
πŸ“ band 50% ladder: 0.074 – 0.862 Β· rung tiap 0.2% Β· buku OK (vol 179 di rung 2 terdekat)
Cetakan lalu: 1.2
Aturan: arah vs cetakan lalu + filter 1 notch (0.2%)
⏱️ Matang H-3 (72 jam).

FOMC Β· Oct 2026

rilis Thu, 29 Oct 2026 Β· 01:00 WIB
πŸ’΅ USD (dua arah): hike β†’ BAD (29%, n=21) Β· cut β†’ BAD tipis (45%, n=89)
Fed maintains rate @82Β’
πŸ”€ Arah vs cetakan lalu (4.00%): TAHAN Β· peluang 80% (hike 18% / tahan 80% / turun 2%)
πŸ”΄ LIVE Kalshi: Fed maintains rate 82Β’ Β· Hike 25bps 18Β’ Β· Hike >25bps 1Β’ Β· Cut >25bps 1Β’
πŸ›‘ CALL AMAN β‰₯95%: TIDAK CUT @98Β’ β€” hist 31/31 = 100%
1 call: favorit pasar Β· jaminan β‰₯95% saat fav β‰₯80Β’ (35/35 = 100%); total 36/37 = 97.3%. Call aman: TIDAK CUT 31/31 saat cut pricing ≀5Β’.
⏱️ Matang: mulai H-2 (48 jam) β€” audit 18/18 sejak H-2; meeting ketat bisa goyang s/d akhir.
⚠️ Efek USD relatif vs pricing β€” hist: hike di akhir siklus sering "sell the news" (dolar naik 4/19 hari hike).

PCE Β· Oct 2026

rilis Thu, 29 Oct 2026 Β· 19:30 WIB
πŸ’΅ USD Core: BAD tipis β€” kalau arah TURUN, dolar naik 45% (median -0.037%, n=111) Β· USD Headline kalau arah NAIK: GOOD tipis β€” dolar naik 54% (median +0.040%, n=54)
⏭️ SKIP β€” tak ada call β‰₯95% di rilis ini (arah β‰ˆ koin)
core: Arah: SKIP β€” gerakan ekspektasi 0.189 vs cetakan 0.2 ≀ 1 notch (0.1%) β†’ arah = koin.
core: Median implied ladder Β±0.189 Β· dipakai sbg ekspektasi
Rung terdekat: Above 0.2% 46Β’ Β· Above 0.1% 85Β’ Β· Above 0.3% 20Β’
πŸ“ band 50% ladder: 0.125 – 0.28 Β· rung tiap 0.1% Β· buku TEBAL (vol 1.434 di rung 2 terdekat)
Cetakan lalu: 0.2
headline: Arah: SKIP β€” gerakan ekspektasi 0.376 vs cetakan 0.3 ≀ 1 notch (0.1%) β†’ arah = koin.
headline: Median implied ladder Β±0.376 Β· dipakai sbg ekspektasi
Rung terdekat: Above 0.4% 39Β’ Β· Above 0.3% 86Β’ Β· Above 0.5% 12Β’
πŸ“ band 50% ladder: 0.323 – 0.451 Β· rung tiap 0.1% Β· buku TIPIS
Cetakan lalu: 0.3
Aturan: arah vs cetakan lalu + filter 1 notch (0.1%)
⏱️ Matang H-3 (72 jam). Core = penggerak utama; headline satu paket rilis.
Headline + core = SATU rilis (bareng) β†’ satu kartu.

GDP Β· Oct 2026

rilis Thu, 29 Oct 2026 Β· 19:30 WIB
πŸ’΅ USD: GOOD tipis β€” kalau arah NAIK, dolar naik 54% (median +0.084%, n=24)
Arah NAIK Β· hist 97.7%
Call arah: **NAIK** β€” hit 43/44 = 97.7% Β· OOS 17/18 = 94.4% Β· filter >1 notch (0.5%) Β· βœ… β‰₯95%
Median implied ladder Β±3.277 Β· cross-check Β· ekspektasi GDPNow (3.6773)
Rung terdekat: Above 3.5% 38Β’ Β· Above 3.0% 66Β’ Β· Above 4.0% 22Β’
πŸ“ band 50% ladder: 2.694 – 3.891 Β· rung tiap 0.5% Β· buku TEBAL (vol 37.855 di rung 2 terdekat)
πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ GDPNow (Atlanta Fed): 3.6773% (obs 2026-07-01) β€” cross-check arah ekspektasi
Cetakan lalu: 2.2
Aturan: arah vs cetakan lalu + filter 1 notch (0.5%)
⏱️ Matang H-3 (72 jam).

NFP Β·

rilis
πŸ’΅ USD: NETRAL (koin) β€” kalau arah NAIK, dolar naik 49% (median -0.007%, n=73)
NFP > -25,000 @92Β’
πŸ”€ Arah vs cetakan lalu: NAIK Β· peluang 65% (pasar +74K vs cetakan lalu +29K)
1 call: quote paling yakin di ladder jobs. Hist 41/42 = 97.6%; β‰₯95Β’: 40/40 = 100%.
Median implied (ladder): Β±74,286
⏱️ Matang: mulai H-3 (72 jam) β€” stabil sejak H-4 (33/34); quotes bisa geser dikit s/d rilis.

2 Β· Winrate (backtest, walk-forward)

Satu call terbaik per rilis β€” tiap baris history bisa dicek.

CPI MoM

96.8%
61/63 rilis Β· 1 call/rilis = quote paling yakin (seri MoM)
sejak Nov 2021: 59/59 Β· 2 miss = Jul & Sep 2021 (pasar Kalshi awal, tipis)
window 2021-07-13 β†’ 2026-09-11 Β· sumber: settle Kalshi KXCPI

FOMC

97.3%
36/37 meeting Β· 1 call = favorit pasar (bucket peluang tertinggi)
favorit β‰₯80Β’: 35/35 = jaminan β‰₯95% Β· β‰₯90Β’: 33/33
πŸ›‘ TIDAK CUT saat cut pricing ≀5Β’: 31/31 = 100% Β· 28 Kalshi + 9 rekonstruksi
window 2022-03-16 β†’ 2026-09-16 Β· sumber: KXFEDDECISION + KXFED ladder + FRED

PPI

98.9%
87/88 bulan Β· 1 call adaptif: arah saat sinyal kuat, else ambang aman
arah (margin β‰₯0.25): 39/40 Β· ambang: 48/48
ambang = "PPI β‰₯ prediksi βˆ’ kuantil 0.99 error historis" (walk-forward). window 2019-02 β†’ 2026-08

NFP

97.7%
42/43 rilis Β· 1 call = quote paling yakin (ladder jobs, KXPAYROLLS + legacy PROLLS)
β‰₯90Β’: 42/43 Β· β‰₯95Β’: 40/40 = jaminan β‰₯95%
window 2023-04-07 β†’ 2026-10-02 Β· sumber: settle Kalshi KXPAYROLLS + legacy PROLLS

3 Β· History tebakan (backtest) β€” 1 call per rilis

CPI β€” per rilis β€” 63 rilis total, tampil 15 terakhir

RilisRefCallHasil
2026-09-11Aug 2026MoM ≀ 1% @1Β’aktual: +0.4% βœ“
2026-08-12Jul 2026MoM > -0.4% @99Β’aktual: +0.1% βœ“
2026-07-14Jun 2026MoM ≀ 0.5% @0.5Β’aktual: -0.4% βœ“
2026-06-10May 2026MoM > -0.3% @99.5Β’aktual: +0.5% βœ“
2026-05-12Apr 2026MoM ≀ 1% @0.5Β’aktual: +0.6% βœ“
2026-04-10Mar 2026MoM > 0.5% @99.5Β’aktual: +0.9% βœ“
2026-03-11Feb 2026MoM ≀ 0.4% @1Β’aktual: +0.3% βœ“
2026-02-13Jan 2026MoM > -0.1% @98.5Β’aktual: +0.2% βœ“
2026-01-13Dec 2025MoM > -0.1% @98.5Β’aktual: +0.3% βœ“
2025-12-18Nov 2025MoM > -0.1% @99.5Β’aktual: +0.2%Β° βœ“
2025-11-13Oct 2025MoM > 0% @99Β’aktual: +0.2%Β° βœ“
2025-10-15Sep 2025MoM > -0.1% @98.5Β’aktual: +0.3% βœ“
2025-09-11Aug 2025MoM > -0.1% @98.5Β’aktual: +0.4% βœ“
2025-08-12Jul 2025MoM ≀ 0.4% @1.5Β’aktual: +0.2% βœ“
2025-07-15Jun 2025MoM ≀ 0.6% @2Β’aktual: +0.3% βœ“
lihat semua (63)
RilisRefCallHasil
2026-09-11Aug 2026MoM ≀ 1% @1Β’aktual: +0.4% βœ“
2026-08-12Jul 2026MoM > -0.4% @99Β’aktual: +0.1% βœ“
2026-07-14Jun 2026MoM ≀ 0.5% @0.5Β’aktual: -0.4% βœ“
2026-06-10May 2026MoM > -0.3% @99.5Β’aktual: +0.5% βœ“
2026-05-12Apr 2026MoM ≀ 1% @0.5Β’aktual: +0.6% βœ“
2026-04-10Mar 2026MoM > 0.5% @99.5Β’aktual: +0.9% βœ“
2026-03-11Feb 2026MoM ≀ 0.4% @1Β’aktual: +0.3% βœ“
2026-02-13Jan 2026MoM > -0.1% @98.5Β’aktual: +0.2% βœ“
2026-01-13Dec 2025MoM > -0.1% @98.5Β’aktual: +0.3% βœ“
2025-12-18Nov 2025MoM > -0.1% @99.5Β’aktual: +0.2%Β° βœ“
2025-11-13Oct 2025MoM > 0% @99Β’aktual: +0.2%Β° βœ“
2025-10-15Sep 2025MoM > -0.1% @98.5Β’aktual: +0.3% βœ“
2025-09-11Aug 2025MoM > -0.1% @98.5Β’aktual: +0.4% βœ“
2025-08-12Jul 2025MoM ≀ 0.4% @1.5Β’aktual: +0.2% βœ“
2025-07-15Jun 2025MoM ≀ 0.6% @2Β’aktual: +0.3% βœ“
2025-06-11May 2025MoM ≀ 0.4% @2Β’aktual: +0.1% βœ“
2025-05-13Apr 2025MoM ≀ 0.5% @2Β’aktual: +0.2% βœ“
2025-04-10Mar 2025MoM ≀ 0.3% @1Β’aktual: -0.1% βœ“
2025-03-12Feb 2025MoM > 0.1% @96Β’aktual: +0.2% βœ“
2025-02-12Jan 2025MoM > -0.1% @99Β’aktual: +0.5% βœ“
2025-01-15Dec 2024MoM ≀ 0.5% @1Β’aktual: +0.4% βœ“
2024-12-11Nov 2024MoM ≀ 0.6% @1Β’aktual: +0.3% βœ“
2024-11-13Oct 2024MoM ≀ 0.6% @1Β’aktual: +0.2% βœ“
2024-10-10Sep 2024MoM ≀ 0.6% @1Β’aktual: +0.2% βœ“
2024-09-11Aug 2024MoM > -0.1% @99Β’aktual: +0.2% βœ“
2024-08-14Jul 2024MoM ≀ 0.6% @1Β’aktual: +0.2% βœ“
2024-07-11Jun 2024MoM ≀ 0.6% @1Β’aktual: -0.1% βœ“
2024-06-12May 2024MoM > -0.1% @97Β’aktual: +0.0% βœ“
2024-05-15Apr 2024MoM > 0% @98Β’aktual: +0.3% βœ“
2024-04-10Mar 2024MoM > 0.1% @97Β’aktual: +0.4% βœ“
2024-03-12Feb 2024MoM ≀ 0.6% @1Β’aktual: +0.4% βœ“
2024-02-13Jan 2024MoM ≀ 0.3% @3Β’aktual: +0.3% βœ“
2024-01-11Dec 2023MoM ≀ 0.3% @3Β’aktual: +0.3% βœ“
2023-12-12Nov 2023MoM > -0.2% @99Β’aktual: +0.1% βœ“
2023-11-14Oct 2023MoM > -0.1% @99Β’aktual: +0.0% βœ“
2023-10-12Sep 2023MoM > -0.3% @99Β’aktual: +0.4% βœ“
2023-09-13Aug 2023MoM ≀ 0.8% @1Β’aktual: +0.6% βœ“
2023-08-10Jul 2023MoM > -0.1% @99Β’aktual: +0.2% βœ“
2023-07-12Jun 2023MoM ≀ 0.4% @3Β’aktual: +0.2% βœ“
2023-06-13May 2023MoM > -0.2% @99Β’aktual: +0.1% βœ“
2023-05-10Apr 2023MoM ≀ 0.8% @2Β’aktual: +0.4% βœ“
2023-04-12Mar 2023MoM ≀ 0.4% @1Β’aktual: +0.1% βœ“
2023-03-14Feb 2023MoM ≀ 0.8% @1.5Β’aktual: +0.4% βœ“
2023-02-14Jan 2023MoM ≀ 0.8% @1Β’aktual: +0.5% βœ“
2023-01-12Dec 2022MoM ≀ 0.8% @1Β’aktual: -0.1% βœ“
2022-12-13Nov 2022MoM ≀ 0.8% @1Β’aktual: +0.1% βœ“
2022-11-10Oct 2022MoM > 0.3% @99Β’aktual: +0.4% βœ“
2022-10-13Sep 2022MoM ≀ 1% @1Β’aktual: +0.4% βœ“
2022-09-13Aug 2022MoM ≀ 0.2% @1Β’aktual: +0.1% βœ“
2022-08-10Jul 2022MoM ≀ 1.1% @1Β’aktual: +0.0% βœ“
2022-07-13Jun 2022MoM > 0.1% @99.5Β’aktual: +1.3% βœ“
2022-06-10May 2022MoM > 0.1% @99.5Β’aktual: +1.0% βœ“
2022-05-11Apr 2022MoM ≀ 1.1% @1Β’aktual: +0.3% βœ“
2022-04-12Mar 2022MoM > 0.5% @99Β’aktual: +1.2% βœ“
2022-03-10Feb 2022MoM > 0.4% @97Β’aktual: +0.8% βœ“
2022-02-10Jan 2022MoM ≀ 0.7% @9Β’aktual: +0.6% βœ“
2022-01-12Dec 2021MoM ≀ 0.8% @7.5Β’aktual: +0.5% βœ“
2021-12-10Nov 2021MoM > 0.3% @96Β’aktual: +0.8% βœ“
2021-11-10Oct 2021MoM > 0.3% @91.5Β’aktual: +0.9% βœ“
2021-10-13Sep 2021MoM > 0.2% @78.5Β’aktual: +0.4% βœ“
2021-09-14Aug 2021MoM > 0.4% @50.5Β’aktual: +0.3% βœ—
2021-08-11Jul 2021MoM ≀ 0.7% @39Β’aktual: +0.5% βœ“
2021-07-13Jun 2021MoM ≀ 0.6% @19Β’aktual: +0.9% βœ—

FOMC β€” per meeting β€” 37 rilis total, tampil 12 terakhir

TanggalMeetingCallHasil
2026-09-16Sep 2026Hike 25bp (85.4Β’)aktual: Hike 25bp βœ“
2026-07-29Jul 2026Hold (79.6Β’)aktual: Hold βœ“
2026-06-17Jun 2026Hold (98Β’)aktual: Hold βœ“
2026-04-29Apr 2026Hold (98Β’)aktual: Hold βœ“
2026-03-18Mar 2026Hold (98Β’)aktual: Hold βœ“
2026-01-28Jan 2026Hold (98Β’)aktual: Hold βœ“
2025-12-10Dec 2025Cut 25bp (96.1Β’)aktual: Cut 25bp βœ“
2025-10-29Oct 2025Cut 25bp (98Β’)aktual: Cut 25bp βœ“
2025-09-17Sep 2025Cut 25bp (90.2Β’)aktual: Cut 25bp βœ“
2025-07-30Jul 2025Hold (96.1Β’)aktual: Hold βœ“
2025-06-18Jun 2025Hold (96.6Β’)aktual: Hold βœ“
2025-05-07May 2025Hold (95.5Β’)aktual: Hold βœ“
lihat semua (37)
TanggalMeetingCallHasil
2026-09-16Sep 2026Hike 25bp (85.4Β’)aktual: Hike 25bp βœ“
2026-07-29Jul 2026Hold (79.6Β’)aktual: Hold βœ“
2026-06-17Jun 2026Hold (98Β’)aktual: Hold βœ“
2026-04-29Apr 2026Hold (98Β’)aktual: Hold βœ“
2026-03-18Mar 2026Hold (98Β’)aktual: Hold βœ“
2026-01-28Jan 2026Hold (98Β’)aktual: Hold βœ“
2025-12-10Dec 2025Cut 25bp (96.1Β’)aktual: Cut 25bp βœ“
2025-10-29Oct 2025Cut 25bp (98Β’)aktual: Cut 25bp βœ“
2025-09-17Sep 2025Cut 25bp (90.2Β’)aktual: Cut 25bp βœ“
2025-07-30Jul 2025Hold (96.1Β’)aktual: Hold βœ“
2025-06-18Jun 2025Hold (96.6Β’)aktual: Hold βœ“
2025-05-07May 2025Hold (95.5Β’)aktual: Hold βœ“
2025-03-19Mar 2025Hold (97.1Β’)aktual: Hold βœ“
2025-01-29Jan 2025Hold (97Β’)aktual: Hold βœ“
2024-12-18Dec 2024Cut 25bp (94.6Β’)aktual: Cut 25bp βœ“
2024-11-07Nov 2024Cut 25bp (96.1Β’)aktual: Cut 25bp βœ“
2024-09-18Sep 2024Cut 25bp (55.6Β’)aktual: Cut >25bp βœ—
2024-07-31Jul 2024Hold (95.1Β’)aktual: Hold βœ“
2024-06-12Jun 2024Hold (98Β’)aktual: Hold βœ“
2024-05-01May 2024Hold (96.6Β’)aktual: Hold βœ“
2024-03-20Mar 2024Hold (96.6Β’)aktual: Hold βœ“
2024-01-31Jan 2024Hold (92.1Β’)aktual: Hold βœ“
2023-12-13Dec 2023Hold (97.1Β’)aktual: Hold βœ“
2023-11-01Nov 2023Hold (97.1Β’)aktual: Hold βœ“
2023-09-20Sep 2023Hold (95.6Β’)aktual: Hold βœ“
2023-07-26Jul 2023Hike 25bp (96.6Β’)aktual: Hike 25bp βœ“
2023-06-14Jun 2023Hold (93.7Β’)aktual: Hold βœ“
2023-05-03May 2023Hike 25bp (92.2Β’)aktual: Hike 25bp βœ“
2023-03-22Mar 2023 †Hike 25bp (80.5Β’)aktual: Hike 25bp βœ“
2023-02-01Feb 2023 †Hike 25bp (97Β’)aktual: Hike 25bp βœ“
2022-12-14Dec 2022 †Hike >25bp (98.5Β’)aktual: Hike >25bp βœ“
2022-11-02Nov 2022 †Hike >25bp (99Β’)aktual: Hike >25bp βœ“
2022-09-21Sep 2022 †Hike >25bp (99.5Β’)aktual: Hike >25bp βœ“
2022-07-27Jul 2022 †Hike >25bp (99.5Β’)aktual: Hike >25bp βœ“
2022-06-15Jun 2022 †Hike >25bp (99.5Β’)aktual: Hike >25bp βœ“
2022-05-04May 2022 †Hike >25bp (96Β’)aktual: Hike >25bp βœ“
2022-03-16Mar 2022 †Hike 25bp (93Β’)aktual: Hike 25bp βœ“

PPI β€” per bulan β€” 88 rilis total, tampil 15 terakhir

BulanCallMarginAktual
2026-08ambang β‰₯ -0.47% (ambang)m +0.231Ξ” +0.30pp βœ“
2026-07ambang β‰₯ -0.88% (ambang)m +0.022Ξ” +0.10pp βœ“
2026-06arah turun (arah)m -0.905Ξ” -0.90pp βœ“
2026-05ambang β‰₯ -0.33% (ambang)m -0.624Ξ” +0.00pp βœ“
2026-04ambang β‰₯ -0.14% (ambang)m -0.034Ξ” +0.70pp βœ“
2026-03ambang β‰₯ +0.00% (ambang)m +0.309Ξ” +0.00pp βœ“
2026-02arah turun (arah)m -0.274Ξ” +0.20pp βœ—
2026-01ambang β‰₯ -0.64% (ambang)m -0.232Ξ” +0.10pp βœ“
2025-09arah naik (arah)m +0.437Ξ” +0.40pp βœ“
2025-08arah turun (arah)m -0.391Ξ” -0.80pp βœ“
2025-07ambang β‰₯ -0.62% (ambang)m +0.194Ξ” +0.90pp βœ“
2025-06ambang β‰₯ -0.59% (ambang)m -0.073Ξ” -0.30pp βœ“
2025-05arah naik (arah)m +0.291Ξ” +0.30pp βœ“
2025-04ambang β‰₯ -0.70% (ambang)m +0.121Ξ” -0.50pp βœ“
2025-03ambang β‰₯ -0.93% (ambang)m -0.205Ξ” -0.50pp βœ“
lihat semua (88)
BulanCallMarginAktual
2026-08ambang β‰₯ -0.47% (ambang)m +0.231Ξ” +0.30pp βœ“
2026-07ambang β‰₯ -0.88% (ambang)m +0.022Ξ” +0.10pp βœ“
2026-06arah turun (arah)m -0.905Ξ” -0.90pp βœ“
2026-05ambang β‰₯ -0.33% (ambang)m -0.624Ξ” +0.00pp βœ“
2026-04ambang β‰₯ -0.14% (ambang)m -0.034Ξ” +0.70pp βœ“
2026-03ambang β‰₯ +0.00% (ambang)m +0.309Ξ” +0.00pp βœ“
2026-02arah turun (arah)m -0.274Ξ” +0.20pp βœ—
2026-01ambang β‰₯ -0.64% (ambang)m -0.232Ξ” +0.10pp βœ“
2025-09arah naik (arah)m +0.437Ξ” +0.40pp βœ“
2025-08arah turun (arah)m -0.391Ξ” -0.80pp βœ“
2025-07ambang β‰₯ -0.62% (ambang)m +0.194Ξ” +0.90pp βœ“
2025-06ambang β‰₯ -0.59% (ambang)m -0.073Ξ” -0.30pp βœ“
2025-05arah naik (arah)m +0.291Ξ” +0.30pp βœ“
2025-04ambang β‰₯ -0.70% (ambang)m +0.121Ξ” -0.50pp βœ“
2025-03ambang β‰₯ -0.93% (ambang)m -0.205Ξ” -0.50pp βœ“
2025-02arah turun (arah)m -0.391Ξ” -0.60pp βœ“
2025-01ambang β‰₯ -0.35% (ambang)m -0.027Ξ” -0.10pp βœ“
2024-12ambang β‰₯ -0.46% (ambang)m -0.032Ξ” -0.20pp βœ“
2024-11ambang β‰₯ -0.57% (ambang)m -0.041Ξ” +0.10pp βœ“
2024-10ambang β‰₯ -0.65% (ambang)m +0.075Ξ” +0.10pp βœ“
2024-09ambang β‰₯ -0.66% (ambang)m -0.028Ξ” -0.20pp βœ“
2024-08ambang β‰₯ -0.65% (ambang)m +0.181Ξ” +0.20pp βœ“
2024-07ambang β‰₯ -0.72% (ambang)m -0.086Ξ” -0.10pp βœ“
2024-06ambang β‰₯ -0.98% (ambang)m -0.141Ξ” +0.20pp βœ“
2024-05arah turun (arah)m -0.509Ξ” -0.70pp βœ“
2024-04arah naik (arah)m +0.410Ξ” +0.60pp βœ“
2024-03ambang β‰₯ -0.46% (ambang)m -0.219Ξ” -0.40pp βœ“
2024-02ambang β‰₯ -0.47% (ambang)m +0.070Ξ” +0.30pp βœ“
2024-01arah naik (arah)m +0.389Ξ” +0.40pp βœ“
2023-12ambang β‰₯ -0.59% (ambang)m +0.358Ξ” +0.00pp βœ“
2023-11arah naik (arah)m +0.467Ξ” +0.40pp βœ“
2023-10arah turun (arah)m -0.374Ξ” -0.90pp βœ“
2023-09arah turun (arah)m -0.281Ξ” -0.20pp βœ“
2023-08ambang β‰₯ -0.32% (ambang)m +0.129Ξ” +0.30pp βœ“
2023-07ambang β‰₯ -0.67% (ambang)m +0.182Ξ” +0.30pp βœ“
2023-06arah naik (arah)m +0.581Ξ” +0.50pp βœ“
2023-05ambang β‰₯ -0.72% (ambang)m -0.066Ξ” -0.50pp βœ“
2023-04arah naik (arah)m +0.775Ξ” +0.60pp βœ“
2023-03ambang β‰₯ -0.69% (ambang)m +0.172Ξ” -0.50pp βœ“
2023-02ambang β‰₯ -0.41% (ambang)m +0.149Ξ” -0.40pp βœ“
2023-01arah naik (arah)m +0.594Ξ” +0.90pp βœ“
2022-12arah turun (arah)m -0.298Ξ” -0.70pp βœ“
2022-11ambang β‰₯ -0.71% (ambang)m -0.143Ξ” +0.00pp βœ“
2022-10ambang β‰₯ -0.44% (ambang)m +0.229Ξ” +0.00pp βœ“
2022-09arah naik (arah)m +0.573Ξ” +0.60pp βœ“
2022-08arah naik (arah)m +0.509Ξ” +0.30pp βœ“
2022-07arah turun (arah)m -0.502Ξ” -1.50pp βœ“
2022-06arah naik (arah)m +0.482Ξ” +0.20pp βœ“
2022-05arah naik (arah)m +0.460Ξ” +0.40pp βœ“
2022-04arah turun (arah)m -0.984Ξ” -1.10pp βœ“
2022-03arah naik (arah)m +0.281Ξ” +0.50pp βœ“
2022-02arah turun (arah)m -0.480Ξ” -0.40pp βœ“
2022-01ambang β‰₯ -0.26% (ambang)m +0.224Ξ” +0.60pp βœ“
2021-12arah turun (arah)m -0.350Ξ” -0.80pp βœ“
2021-11arah naik (arah)m +0.398Ξ” +0.20pp βœ“
2021-10arah naik (arah)m +0.318Ξ” +0.10pp βœ“
2021-09arah turun (arah)m -0.356Ξ” -0.20pp βœ“
2021-08arah turun (arah)m -0.685Ξ” -0.30pp βœ“
2021-07ambang β‰₯ -0.23% (ambang)m -0.332Ξ” +0.00pp βœ“
2021-06ambang β‰₯ -0.07% (ambang)m +0.030Ξ” +0.20pp βœ“
2021-05ambang β‰₯ -0.15% (ambang)m +0.147Ξ” +0.20pp βœ“
2021-04arah turun (arah)m -0.271Ξ” -0.40pp βœ“
2021-03ambang β‰₯ -0.37% (ambang)m +0.032Ξ” +0.50pp βœ“
2021-02arah turun (arah)m -1.190Ξ” -0.80pp βœ“
2021-01ambang β‰₯ -0.45% (ambang)m +0.020Ξ” +1.00pp βœ“
2020-12ambang β‰₯ -0.44% (ambang)m +0.230Ξ” +0.20pp βœ“
2020-11arah turun (arah)m -0.269Ξ” -0.20pp βœ“
2020-10arah turun (arah)m -0.431Ξ” -0.10pp βœ“
2020-09ambang β‰₯ -0.53% (ambang)m -0.058Ξ” +0.10pp βœ“
2020-08ambang β‰₯ -0.35% (ambang)m -0.179Ξ” -0.30pp βœ“
2020-07arah naik (arah)m +0.998Ξ” +0.80pp βœ“
2020-06ambang β‰₯ -0.47% (ambang)m -0.100Ξ” -0.60pp βœ“
2020-05arah naik (arah)m +0.886Ξ” +1.70pp βœ“
2020-04arah turun (arah)m -0.566Ξ” -1.10pp βœ“
2020-03arah naik (arah)m +0.436Ξ” +0.40pp βœ“
2020-02arah turun (arah)m -0.451Ξ” -1.10pp βœ“
2020-01ambang β‰₯ -0.50% (ambang)m -0.088Ξ” +0.30pp βœ“
2019-12ambang β‰₯ -0.36% (ambang)m +0.249Ξ” +0.10pp βœ“
2019-11ambang β‰₯ -0.27% (ambang)m -0.055Ξ” -0.40pp βœ“
2019-10arah naik (arah)m +0.558Ξ” +0.70pp βœ“
2019-09ambang β‰₯ -0.60% (ambang)m -0.085Ξ” -0.40pp βœ“
2019-08ambang β‰₯ -0.44% (ambang)m -0.021Ξ” -0.10pp βœ“
2019-07ambang β‰₯ -0.41% (ambang)m +0.116Ξ” +0.10pp βœ“
2019-06ambang β‰₯ -0.55% (ambang)m -0.017Ξ” +0.00pp βœ“
2019-05ambang β‰₯ -0.45% (ambang)m -0.019Ξ” -0.10pp βœ“
2019-04arah turun (arah)m -0.255Ξ” -0.40pp βœ“
2019-03ambang β‰₯ -0.31% (ambang)m +0.228Ξ” +0.50pp βœ“
2019-02ambang β‰₯ -0.53% (ambang)m +0.207Ξ” +0.20pp βœ“

NFP β€” per rilis β€” 43 rilis total, tampil 15 terakhir

RilisRefCallHasil
2026-10-02Sep 2026NFP > -25K @94Β’aktual: +0K βœ“
2026-09-04Aug 2026NFP ≀ 200K @98Β’aktual: +0K βœ“
2026-08-07Jul 2026NFP > -25K @97Β’aktual: -0K βœ“
2026-07-02Jun 2026NFP > -25K @97Β’aktual: +0K βœ“
2026-06-05May 2026NFP > -50K @97.5Β’aktual: +0K βœ“
2026-05-08Apr 2026NFP ≀ 200K @97.5Β’aktual: +0K βœ“
2026-04-03Mar 2026NFP > -100K @98.5Β’aktual: +0K βœ“
2026-03-06Feb 2026NFP > -25K @94.5Β’aktual: -0K βœ—
2026-02-11Jan 2026NFP > 125K @99.5Β’aktual: +0K βœ“
2026-01-09Dec 2025NFP > -25K @96.5Β’aktual: +0K βœ“
2025-12-16Nov 2025NFP ≀ 300K @99.5Β’aktual: +0K βœ“
2025-11-07Oct 2025NFP ≀ 125K @95.5Β’aktual: β€” βœ“
2025-10-03Sep 2025NFP > -100K @97.5Β’aktual: +112KΒ° βœ“
2025-09-05Aug 2025NFP ≀ 300K @99.5Β’aktual: +0K βœ“
2025-08-01Jul 2025NFP > -100K @99.5Β’aktual: +0K βœ“
lihat semua (43)
RilisRefCallHasil
2026-10-02Sep 2026NFP > -25K @94Β’aktual: +0K βœ“
2026-09-04Aug 2026NFP ≀ 200K @98Β’aktual: +0K βœ“
2026-08-07Jul 2026NFP > -25K @97Β’aktual: -0K βœ“
2026-07-02Jun 2026NFP > -25K @97Β’aktual: +0K βœ“
2026-06-05May 2026NFP > -50K @97.5Β’aktual: +0K βœ“
2026-05-08Apr 2026NFP ≀ 200K @97.5Β’aktual: +0K βœ“
2026-04-03Mar 2026NFP > -100K @98.5Β’aktual: +0K βœ“
2026-03-06Feb 2026NFP > -25K @94.5Β’aktual: -0K βœ—
2026-02-11Jan 2026NFP > 125K @99.5Β’aktual: +0K βœ“
2026-01-09Dec 2025NFP > -25K @96.5Β’aktual: +0K βœ“
2025-12-16Nov 2025NFP ≀ 300K @99.5Β’aktual: +0K βœ“
2025-11-07Oct 2025NFP ≀ 125K @95.5Β’aktual: β€” βœ“
2025-10-03Sep 2025NFP > -100K @97.5Β’aktual: +112KΒ° βœ“
2025-09-05Aug 2025NFP ≀ 300K @99.5Β’aktual: +0K βœ“
2025-08-01Jul 2025NFP > -100K @99.5Β’aktual: +0K βœ“
2025-07-03Jun 2025NFP ≀ 300K @99Β’aktual: +0K βœ“
2025-06-06May 2025NFP ≀ 300K @99Β’aktual: +0K βœ“
2025-05-02Apr 2025NFP ≀ 300K @99Β’aktual: +0K βœ“
2025-04-04Mar 2025NFP > -100K @99Β’aktual: +0K βœ“
2025-03-07Feb 2025NFP ≀ 300K @99Β’aktual: +0K βœ“
2025-02-07Jan 2025NFP > -100K @99Β’aktual: +0K βœ“
2025-01-10Dec 2024NFP > 0K @99Β’aktual: +0K βœ“
2024-12-06Nov 2024NFP ≀ 400K @99Β’aktual: +0K βœ“
2024-11-01Oct 2024NFP > -50K @98Β’aktual: +0K βœ“
2024-10-04Sep 2024NFP > -100K @99Β’aktual: +0K βœ“
2024-09-06Aug 2024NFP ≀ 300K @97.5Β’aktual: +0K βœ“
2024-08-02Jul 2024NFP > 0K @99Β’aktual: +0K βœ“
2024-07-05Jun 2024NFP > 0K @99Β’aktual: +0K βœ“
2024-06-07May 2024NFP ≀ 300K @90.5Β’aktual: +0K βœ“
2024-05-03Apr 2024NFP > 0K @98Β’aktual: +0K βœ“
2024-04-05Mar 2024NFP > 0K @99Β’aktual: +0K βœ“
2024-03-08Feb 2024NFP > -0K @99Β’aktual: +0K βœ“
2024-02-02Jan 2024NFP > -0K @99Β’aktual: +0K βœ“
2024-01-05Dec 2023NFP ≀ 400K @99Β’aktual: +0K βœ“
2023-12-08Nov 2023NFP ≀ 500K @99Β’aktual: +0K βœ“
2023-11-03Oct 2023NFP ≀ 500K @99Β’aktual: +0K βœ“
2023-10-06Sep 2023NFP ≀ 500K @97Β’aktual: +0K βœ“
2023-09-01Aug 2023NFP ≀ 500K @99Β’aktual: +0K βœ“
2023-08-04Jul 2023NFP > 0K @99Β’aktual: +0K βœ“
2023-07-07Jun 2023NFP > 0K @99Β’aktual: +0K βœ“
2023-06-02May 2023NFP ≀ 400K @98Β’aktual: +0K βœ“
2023-05-05Apr 2023NFP ≀ 500K @99Β’aktual: +0K βœ“
2023-04-07Mar 2023NFP ≀ 500K @99Β’aktual: +0K βœ“
† FOMC rekonstruksi dari ladder KXFED + target rate FRED (Mar 2022–Mar 2023). Aktual CPI = MoM rilis resmi (TradingView); 2 direkonstruksi dari settle ladder Kalshi (Β°). Aktual NFP = rilis resmi (TradingView); Β° = rekonstruksi dari ladder settle (midpoint range).
Catatan metodologi
Semua angka dihitung dari data settle (Kalshi / TradingView konsensus / CSV bulanan) dengan walk-forward β€” tidak ada cherry-pick. Update otomatis tiap brief jalan (08:05 & 18:05 WIB) + pada jendela rilis (H-1j / 30m / 15m / 5m / 1m). Halaman ini auto-reload sendiri tiap 2 menit.